Head to Head · Prediction

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili prediction

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Bantamweight

Petr Yan

Bantamweight #2

45%

win probability

Merab Dvalishvili

Bantamweight #1

55%

win probability

Method lean: Decision · 25% finish chance

Preview

MMARANK's model makes Merab Dvalishvili the favourite, with a 55% win probability against Petr Yan.

Petr Yan is our #2 Bantamweight; Merab Dvalishvili is #1.

Petr Yan is 4-1 over the last 5 UFC fights, Merab Dvalishvili 4-1 over 5 fights.

The model projects a decision, giving a 25% chance of a finish — Petr Yan stops 33% of opponents they beat, Merab Dvalishvili 14%.

They share 4 common opponents, among them Cory Sandhagen, who Petr Yan beat and Merab Dvalishvili beat.

Records side by side

Petr YanMerab Dvalishvili

20-5Pro record21-5

12-4UFC record14-3

4 / 0 / 8Wins KO / SUB / DEC1 / 1 / 12

#2 BantamweightMMARANK ranking#1 Bantamweight

5' 7"Height5' 6"

67"Reach68"

SwitchStanceOrthodox

Recent form · last 5

Petr Yan4-1 last 5

WMerab DvalishviliDecision 46-49|46-49|47-48 · 7 Dec 25

WMarcus McGheeDecision 29-28|29-28|29-28 · 26 Jul 25

WDeiveson FigueiredoDecision 50-45|50-45|50-45 · 23 Nov 24

WSong YadongDecision 29-28, 29-28, 29-28 · 9 Mar 24

LMerab DvalishviliDecision 45-50, 45-50, 45-50 · 12 Mar 23

Merab Dvalishvili4-1 last 5

LPetr YanDecision 46-49|46-49|47-48 · 7 Dec 25

WCory SandhagenDecision 49-45|49-45|49-46 · 5 Oct 25

WSean O'MalleySUB · 8 Jun 25

WUmar NurmagomedovDecision 48-47|49-46|48-47 · 19 Jan 25

WSean O'MalleyDecision 46-49|47-48|47-48 · 14 Sept 24

Common opponents · 4

W (Decision)Cory SandhagenW (Decision 49-45|49-45|49-46)

L Sean O'MalleyW (SUB (Guillotine Choke))

W (KO)Jose AldoW (Decision 28-29, 27-30, 28-29)

W (Decision)John DodsonW (Decision)

Previous meetings: Petr Yan (Decision 46-49|46-49|47-48), 7 Dec 25; Merab Dvalishvili (Decision 45-50, 45-50, 45-50), 12 Mar 23

Tale of the tape

edges 4 — 5

91.6MMARANK rating▸ 93.1

#13P4P rank▸ #10

12-4UFC record▸ 14-3

4W streak ◂Current form1L skid

33% ◂Finish rate14%

5.16 ◂Strikes / min4.42

1.7Takedowns / 15▸ 5.97

67"Reach▸ 68"

5'7" ◂Height5'6"

SwitchStanceOrthodox

FAQ

Who is favoured in Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili?

MMARANK's model gives Merab Dvalishvili a 55% win probability and Petr Yan 45%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.

When is Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili?

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili is booked for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on Saturday, 24 October 2026 (Bantamweight).

What are Petr Yan's and Merab Dvalishvili's records?

Petr Yan is 12-4 in the UFC (20-5 as a pro); Merab Dvalishvili is 14-3 in the UFC (21-5 as a pro).

Full UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev card →·Fight simulator →