← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Head to Head · Prediction

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev prediction

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Featherweight★ Main event

Alexander VolkanovskiAlexander Volkanovski
Featherweight #1
54%
win probability
vs
Movsar EvloevMovsar Evloev
Featherweight #3
46%
win probability

Method lean: Decision · 18% finish chance

Preview

There is little to separate them on our numbers: Volkanovski 54%, Evloev 46%.

In MMARANK's Featherweight ratings Volkanovski sits #1 and Evloev #3.

Volkanovski arrives on a 2-fight winning streak, while Evloev arrives on a 10-fight winning streak.

Volkanovski has finished 33% of UFC wins (5 KO, 0 submission) against 0% for Evloev, and the model's method lean is a decision (18% chance it ends inside the distance).

They share 1 common opponent: Diego Lopes, who Volkanovski beat and Evloev beat.

Records side by side

VolkanovskiEvloev
28-4Pro record20-0
15-3UFC record10-0
5 / 0 / 10Wins KO / SUB / DEC0 / 0 / 9
#1 FeatherweightMMARANK ranking#3 Featherweight
5' 6"Height5' 7"
71.5"Reach72.5"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

Recent form · last 5

Alexander Volkanovski3-2 last 5
WDiego LopesDecision 49-46|49-46|50-45 · 1 Feb 26
WDiego LopesDecision 49-46|49-46|48-47 · 13 Apr 25
LIlia TopuriaKO · 17 Feb 24
LIslam MakhachevKO · 21 Oct 23
WYair RodriguezKO · 9 Jul 23
Movsar Evloev5-0 last 5
WLerone Murphy— · 21 Mar 26
WAljamain SterlingDecision 29-28|29-28|29-28 · 7 Dec 24
WArnold AllenDecision 28-29, 28-29, 28-29 · 20 Jan 24
WDiego LopesDecision 29-28, 29-28, 30-27 · 7 May 23
WDan IgeDecision 26-30, 27-30, 27-30 · 4 Jun 22

Common opponents · 1

W (Decision 49-46|49-46|50-45)Diego LopesW (Decision 29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Tale of the tape

edges 4 — 5
96 ◂MMARANK rating90.9
#4 ◂P4P rank#15
15-3UFC record▸ 10-0
2W streakCurrent form▸ 10W streak
33% ◂Finish rate0%
7.26 ◂Strikes / min3.91
1.98Takedowns / 15▸ 4.78
71.5"Reach▸ 72.5"
5'6"Height▸ 5'7"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

FAQ

Who is favoured in Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev?

MMARANK's model gives Alexander Volkanovski a 54% win probability and Movsar Evloev 46%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.

When is Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev?

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev is booked for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on Saturday, 24 October 2026 (Featherweight).

What are Alexander Volkanovski's and Movsar Evloev's records?

Alexander Volkanovski is 15-3 in the UFC (28-4 as a pro); Movsar Evloev is 10-0 in the UFC (20-0 as a pro).

Full UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev card →·Fight simulator →