Head to Head · Prediction
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev prediction
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Lightweight
Method lean: Decision · 32% finish chance
Preview
Our ratings give Grant Dawson the edge here — a 55% win probability, leaving Nurullo Aliev at 45%.
In MMARANK's Lightweight ratings Grant Dawson sits #7 and Nurullo Aliev #28.
Nurullo Aliev arrives on a 4-fight winning streak; Grant Dawson is 4-1 in the last 5.
Grant Dawson has finished 58% of UFC wins (2 KO, 5 submission) against 0% for Nurullo Aliev, and the model's method lean is a decision (32% chance it ends inside the distance).
They share 1 common opponent: Joe Solecki, who Grant Dawson beat and Nurullo Aliev beat.
Records side by side
Recent form · last 5
Common opponents · 1
Tale of the tape
edges 5 — 2FAQ
Who is favoured in Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev?
MMARANK's model gives Grant Dawson a 55% win probability and Nurullo Aliev 45%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.
When is Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev?
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev is booked for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on Saturday, 24 October 2026 (Lightweight).
What are Grant Dawson's and Nurullo Aliev's records?
Grant Dawson is 12-2 in the UFC (24-3-1 as a pro); Nurullo Aliev is 4-0 in the UFC.
Full UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev card →·Fight simulator →