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Model vs UFC

Where we agree & differ

The model is independent of the UFC’s panel — so it disagrees, on purpose. Here’s how the two line up.63% of UFC-ranked fighters land within 3 spots of our rank.

The model vs the UFC — the read

Our model demonstrates substantial alignment with the UFC's official rankings, with 63% of fighters landing within three positions of their official placement, establishing meaningful credibility in our data-driven approach. However, notable divergences emerge in several weight classes: the model rates Ian Machado Garry considerably lower than the UFC's top ranking at welterweight, whilst it markedly elevates Serghei Spivac and Jamahal Hill above their official placements in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions respectively. These disagreements suggest our methodology applies more stringent performance criteria than the UFC's ranking committee, particularly regarding recent titre credentials and empirical fight metrics.

Biggest disagreements

Joselyne Edwards Women's BantamweightUFC #3 · us #14
Serghei Spivac HeavyweightUFC #6 · us #15
Jan Błachowicz Light HeavyweightUFC #4 · us #12
Jamahal Hill Light HeavyweightUFC #6 · us #14
Ian Machado Garry WelterweightUFC #1 · us #8
Belal Muhammad WelterweightUFC #7 · us #14
Kyoji Horiguchi FlyweightUFC #5 · us #11
Brandon Moreno FlyweightUFC #9 · us #3
Benoît Saint Denis LightweightUFC #5 · us #11
Jack Della Maddalena WelterweightUFC #4 · us #10

Pound-for-Pound (UFC order)

1Islam MakhachevMMARANK #1
2Alexander VolkanovskiMMARANK #3(+1)
3Petr YanMMARANK #12(+9)
4Justin GaethjeMMARANK #4
5Ilia TopuriaMMARANK #13(+8)
6Tom Aspinallunranked
7Sean StricklandMMARANK #16(+9)
8Alex PereiraMMARANK #21(+13)
9Merab DvalishviliMMARANK #9
10Joshua VanMMARANK #19(+9)
11Khamzat ChimaevMMARANK #17(+6)
12Ciryl GaneMMARANK #5(-7)
13Alexandre Pantojaunranked
14Charles OliveiraMMARANK #11(-3)
15Arman TsarukyanMMARANK #8(-7)

By division

CJoshua VanMMARANK #1
1Alexandre PantojaMMARANK #4(+3)
2Manel KapeMMARANK #2
3Tatsuro TairaMMARANK #6(+3)
4Brandon RoyvalMMARANK #5(+1)
5Kyoji HoriguchiMMARANK #11(+6)
6Lone’er KavanaghMMARANK #10(+4)
7Amir Albaziunranked
8Asu AlmabayevMMARANK #7(-1)
9Brandon MorenoMMARANK #3(-6)
10Steve Ercegunranked