Head to Head · Prediction
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Lightweight
Method lean: KO · 85% finish chance
Preview
MMARANK's model makes Ismael Bonfim the favourite, with a 61% win probability against Francisco Prado.
Ismael Bonfim carries the higher pre-fight rating, 1540 to 1348.
Francisco Prado arrives on a 4-fight losing run, while Ismael Bonfim arrives on a 3-fight losing run.
Francisco Prado has finished 100% of UFC wins (1 KO, 0 submission) against 50% for Ismael Bonfim, and the model's method lean is a KO/TKO (85% chance it ends inside the distance).
Ismael Bonfim has a 3-inch reach advantage.
Records side by side
Recent form · last 5
Common opponents · 0
No shared opponents in the data.
Tale of the tape
edges 2 — 7FAQ
Who is favoured in Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim?
MMARANK's model gives Ismael Bonfim a 61% win probability and Francisco Prado 39%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.
When is Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim?
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is booked for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on Saturday, 10 October 2026 (Lightweight).
What are Francisco Prado's and Ismael Bonfim's records?
Francisco Prado is 1-5 in the UFC; Ismael Bonfim is 2-4 in the UFC.
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