Head to Head · Prediction
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Middleweight★ Main event
Method lean: Submission · 71% finish chance
Preview
Our ratings give Allen the edge here — a 56% win probability, leaving Duncan at 44%.
In MMARANK's Middleweight ratings Allen sits #5 and Duncan #15.
Allen arrives on a 3-fight winning streak, while Duncan arrives on a 5-fight winning streak.
Duncan has finished 63% of UFC wins (5 KO, 0 submission) against 57% for Allen, and the model's method lean is a submission (71% chance it ends inside the distance).
Duncan has a 4-inch reach advantage.
Records side by side
Recent form · last 5
Common opponents · 0
No shared opponents in the data.
Tale of the tape
edges 3 — 5FAQ
Who is favoured in Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan?
MMARANK's model gives Brendan Allen a 56% win probability and Christian Leroy Duncan 44%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.
When is Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan?
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan is booked for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on Saturday, 10 October 2026 (Middleweight).
What are Brendan Allen's and Christian Leroy Duncan's records?
Brendan Allen is 14-4 in the UFC (27-7 as a pro); Christian Leroy Duncan is 8-2 in the UFC (15-2 as a pro).
Full UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan card →·Fight simulator →