← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Head to Head · Result

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos result

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Saturday, 26 September 2026 · Bantamweight★ Main event

Result · provisional

Raul Rosas Jr. def. Raoni Barcelos

KO (slam) · R5 1:38

Model’s pre-fight pick: Raoni Barcelos 56% — ✗ upset

Ranking impact

Raul Rosas Jr.rating 1811 → 1884 (+73) · now #18
Raoni Barcelosrating 1904 → 1856 (-48) · now #14

The model’s pre-fight numbers

Raul Rosas Jr.Raul Rosas Jr.
Bantamweight #18
44%
win probability
vs
Raoni BarcelosRaoni Barcelos
Bantamweight #14
56%
win probability

Method lean: Decision · 46% finish chance

Pre-fight preview

Our ratings gave Barcelos the edge here — a 56% win probability, leaving Rosas at 44%.

Rosas is our #18 Bantamweight; Barcelos is #14.

Rosas is 5-0 over the last 5 UFC fights, Barcelos 5-0 over 5 fights.

The model projected a decision, giving a 46% chance of a finish — Rosas stops 50% of opponents they beat, Barcelos 36%.

Records side by side

RosasBarcelos
6-1UFC record (going in)11-4
1 / 2 / 3Wins KO / SUB / DEC2 / 2 / 6
#18 BantamweightMMARANK ranking#14 Bantamweight
5' 9"Height—
67"Reach—
SwitchStance—

Recent form · last 5

Raul Rosas Jr.5-0 last 5
WRob FontDecision 27-30|27-30|27-30 · 8 Mar 26
WVince MoralesDecision 29-28|29-28|29-28 · 30 Mar 25
WAoriqilengDecision 29-28|29-28|29-28 · 14 Sept 24
WRicky TurciosSUB · 8 Jun 24
WTerrence MitchellKO · 17 Sept 23
Raoni Barcelos5-0 last 5
WMontel Jackson— · 26 Apr 26
WRicky SimonDecision 28-29|28-29|28-29 · 8 Nov 25
WCody GarbrandtDecision 28-29|28-29|28-29 · 15 Jun 25
WPayton TalbottDecision 27-30|27-30|26-30 · 19 Jan 25
WCristian QuiñonezSUB · 24 Feb 24

Common opponents · 0

No shared opponents in the data.

Tale of the tape

edges 3 — 3
69.4MMARANK rating▸ 72.1
#148P4P rank▸ #124
6-1 ◂UFC record11-4
5W streakCurrent form5W streak
50% ◂Finish rate36%
1.34Strikes / min▸ 4.65
6.76 ◂Takedowns / 152.51
67"Reach—
5'9"Height—
SwitchStance—

FAQ

Who won Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos?

Raul Rosas Jr. beat Raoni Barcelos by KO (slam) at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on Saturday, 26 September 2026.

Did MMARANK's model pick the winner?

No — before the fight the model gave Raoni Barcelos a 56% win probability against Raul Rosas Jr..

What are Raul Rosas Jr.'s and Raoni Barcelos's records?

Raul Rosas Jr. went in 6-1 in the UFC; Raoni Barcelos went in 11-4 in the UFC.

Full UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos card →·Fight simulator →