Head to Head · Prediction
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan prediction
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Lightweight★ Main event
Method lean: Submission · 71% finish chance
Preview
Moicano goes in as the model's pick: 61% to Nolan's 39%.
Moicano is our #10 Lightweight; Nolan is #22.
Moicano is 3-2 over the last 5 UFC fights, Nolan 5-0 over 5 fights.
The model projects a submission, giving a 71% chance of a finish — Moicano stops 62% of opponents they beat, Nolan 40%.
Records side by side
Recent form · last 5
Common opponents · 0
No shared opponents in the data.
Tale of the tape
edges 4 — 5FAQ
Who is favoured in Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan?
MMARANK's model gives Renato Moicano a 61% win probability and Tom Nolan 39%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.
When is Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan?
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan is booked for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan on Saturday, 31 October 2026 (Lightweight).
What are Renato Moicano's and Tom Nolan's records?
Renato Moicano is 13-7 in the UFC (21-7-1 as a pro); Tom Nolan is 5-1 in the UFC.
Full UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan card →·Fight simulator →