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Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott prediction

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Welterweight★ Main event

Joaquin BuckleyJoaquin Buckley
Welterweight #17
46%
win probability
vs
Mike MalottMike Malott
Welterweight #14
54%
win probability

Method lean: KO · 90% finish chance

Preview

There is little to separate them on our numbers: Malott 54%, Buckley 46%.

Buckley is our #17 Welterweight; Malott is #14.

Buckley is 3-2 over the last 5 UFC fights, Malott 4-1 over 5 fights.

The model projects a KO/TKO, giving a 90% chance of a finish — Malott stops 71% of opponents they beat, Buckley 55%.

They share 1 common opponent: Kevin Holland, who Buckley lost to and Malott beat.

Records side by side

BuckleyMalott
21-8Pro record14-2-1
11-6UFC record7-1
6 / 0 / 2Wins KO / SUB / DEC3 / 2 / 2
#17 WelterweightMMARANK ranking#14 Welterweight
—Height6' 1"
—Reach73"
—StanceOrthodox

Recent form · last 5

Joaquin Buckley3-2 last 5
LSean BradyDecision 30-27|30-25|30-25 · 10 May 26
LKamaru UsmanDecision 49-46|49-46|48-47 · 15 Jun 25
WColby Covington— · 14 Dec 24
WStephen ThompsonKO · 5 Oct 24
WNursulton RuziboevDecision 30-27, 30-26, 29-27 · 11 May 24
Mike Malott4-1 last 5
WGilbert BurnsKO · 19 Apr 26
WKevin HollandDecision 28-29|28-29|28-29 · 19 Oct 25
WCharles RadtkeKO · 11 May 25
WTrevin GilesDecision 30-27|29-28|29-28 · 2 Nov 24
LNeil MagnyKO · 20 Jan 24

Common opponents · 1

L (KO)Kevin HollandW (Decision 28-29|28-29|28-29)

Tale of the tape

edges 0 — 7
77.5MMARANK rating▸ 78.7
#91P4P rank▸ #78
11-6UFC record▸ 7-1
2L skidCurrent form▸ 4W streak
55%Finish rate▸ 71%
3.62Strikes / min▸ 3.94
1.43Takedowns / 15▸ 1.57
—Reach73"
—Height6'1"
—StanceOrthodox

FAQ

Who is favoured in Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott?

MMARANK's model gives Mike Malott a 54% win probability and Joaquin Buckley 46%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.

When is Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott?

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott is booked for UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on Saturday, 17 October 2026 (Welterweight).

What are Joaquin Buckley's and Mike Malott's records?

Joaquin Buckley is 11-6 in the UFC (21-8 as a pro); Mike Malott is 7-1 in the UFC (14-2-1 as a pro).

Full UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott card →·Fight simulator →