Head to Head · Prediction

Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady prediction

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Welterweight★ Main event

Gabriel Bonfim

Welterweight #6

48%

win probability

Sean Brady

Welterweight #5

52%

win probability

Method lean: Submission · 72% finish chance

Preview

There is little to separate them on our numbers: Brady 52%, Bonfim 48%.

In MMARANK's Welterweight ratings Bonfim sits #6 and Brady #5.

Bonfim arrives on a 5-fight winning streak; Brady is 4-1 in the last 5.

Bonfim has finished 57% of UFC wins (1 KO, 3 submission) against 44% for Brady, and the model's method lean is a submission (72% chance it ends inside the distance).

They share 1 common opponent: Belal Muhammad, who Bonfim beat and Brady lost to.

Records side by side

BonfimBrady

20-1Pro record19-2

7-1UFC record9-2

1 / 3 / 2Wins KO / SUB / DEC0 / 4 / 5

#6 WelterweightMMARANK ranking#5 Welterweight

6' 1"Height—

72.5"Reach—

OrthodoxStance—

Recent form · last 5

Gabriel Bonfim5-0 last 5

WBelal MuhammadDecision 45-50|45-50|45-50 · 7 Jun 26

WRandy BrownKO · 9 Nov 25

WStephen Thompson— · 13 Jul 25

WKhaos WilliamsSUB · 15 Feb 25

WAnge LoosaDecision 30-27|30-27|29-28 · 13 Jul 24

Sean Brady4-1 last 5

WJoaquin BuckleyDecision 30-27|30-25|30-25 · 10 May 26

LMichael MoralesKO · 16 Nov 25

WLeon EdwardsSUB · 22 Mar 25

WGilbert BurnsDecision 45-50|45-50|46-49 · 7 Sept 24

WKelvin GastelumSUB · 3 Dec 23

Common opponents · 1

W (Decision 45-50|45-50|45-50)Belal MuhammadL (KO (Punches))

Tale of the tape

edges 5 — 2

88.9MMARANK rating▸ 89.2

#27P4P rank▸ #26

7-1 ◂UFC record9-2

5W streak ◂Current form1W streak

57% ◂Finish rate44%

4.5 ◂Strikes / min4.08

3.61 ◂Takedowns / 153.58

72.5"Reach—

6'1"Height—

OrthodoxStance—

FAQ

Who is favoured in Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady?

MMARANK's model gives Sean Brady a 52% win probability and Gabriel Bonfim 48%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.

When is Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady?

Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady is booked for UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady on Saturday, 7 November 2026 (Welterweight).

What are Gabriel Bonfim's and Sean Brady's records?

Gabriel Bonfim is 7-1 in the UFC (20-1 as a pro); Sean Brady is 9-2 in the UFC (19-2 as a pro).

Full UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady card →·Fight simulator →