Head to Head · Prediction
Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto prediction
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Women's Flyweight
Method lean: KO · 59% finish chance
Preview
Our ratings give Melissa Gatto the edge here — a 59% win probability, leaving Ernesta Kareckaitė at 41%.
Melissa Gatto carries the higher pre-fight rating, 1504 to 1399.
Ernesta Kareckaitė is 1-2 over the last 3 UFC fights, Melissa Gatto 2-3 over 5 fights.
The model projects a KO/TKO, giving a 59% chance of a finish — Melissa Gatto stops 100% of opponents they beat, Ernesta Kareckaitė 0%.
They share 1 common opponent: Dione Barbosa, who Ernesta Kareckaitė lost to and Melissa Gatto lost to.
Records side by side
Recent form · last 5
Common opponents · 1
Tale of the tape
edges 5 — 3FAQ
Who is favoured in Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto?
MMARANK's model gives Melissa Gatto a 59% win probability and Ernesta Kareckaitė 41%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.
When is Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto?
Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto is booked for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on Saturday, 10 October 2026 (Women's Flyweight).
What are Ernesta Kareckaitė's and Melissa Gatto's records?
Ernesta Kareckaitė is 1-2 in the UFC; Melissa Gatto is 3-3 in the UFC.
Full UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan card →·Fight simulator →