Head to Head · Prediction

Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan prediction

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Saturday, 14 November 2026 · Lightweight

Drew Dober

Lightweight #51

46%

win probability

Chris Duncan

Lightweight #31

54%

win probability

Method lean: Submission · 87% finish chance

Preview

MMARANK's model rates Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan close to a coin flip, with Chris Duncan a narrow 54% to Drew Dober's 46%.

In MMARANK's Lightweight ratings Drew Dober sits #51 and Chris Duncan #31.

Drew Dober arrives on a 2-fight winning streak; Chris Duncan is 4-1 in the last 5.

Drew Dober has finished 80% of UFC wins (11 KO, 1 submission) against 50% for Chris Duncan, and the model's method lean is a submission (87% chance it ends inside the distance).

They share 3 common opponents, among them Renato Moicano, who Drew Dober lost to and Chris Duncan lost to.

Records side by side

Drew DoberChris Duncan

15-11UFC record6-2

11 / 1 / 3Wins KO / SUB / DEC0 / 3 / 2

#51 LightweightMMARANK ranking#31 Lightweight

5' 8"Height5' 10"

70"Reach71"

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

Recent form · last 5

Drew Dober2-3 last 5

WMichael JohnsonKO · 8 Mar 26

WKyle PrepolecKO · 18 Oct 25

LManuel TorresKO · 30 Mar 25

LJean Silva— · 13 Jul 24

LRenato MoicanoDecision 29-28, 29-28, 29-28 · 3 Feb 24

Chris Duncan4-1 last 5

LRenato MoicanoSUB · 5 Apr 26

WTerrance McKinneySUB · 7 Dec 25

WMateusz RebeckiDecision 28-29|28-29|27-30 · 3 Aug 25

WJordan VucenicSUB · 22 Mar 25

WBolaji OkiSUB · 28 Sept 24

Common opponents · 3

L (Decision 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)Renato MoicanoL (SUB (Rear Naked Choke))

W (KO (Punches))Terrance McKinneyW (SUB (Anaconda Choke))

L (KO (Punches))Manuel TorresL (SUB (Rear Naked Choke))

Tale of the tape

edges 2 — 7

45.5MMARANK rating▸ 63.3

#329P4P rank▸ #202

15-11UFC record▸ 6-2

2W streak ◂Current form1L skid

80% ◂Finish rate50%

4.48Strikes / min▸ 4.6

0.61Takedowns / 15▸ 2.8

70"Reach▸ 71"

5'8"Height▸ 5'10"

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

FAQ

Who is favoured in Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan?

MMARANK's model gives Chris Duncan a 54% win probability and Drew Dober 46%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.

When is Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan?

Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan is booked for UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit on Saturday, 14 November 2026 (Lightweight).

What are Drew Dober's and Chris Duncan's records?

Drew Dober is 15-11 in the UFC; Chris Duncan is 6-2 in the UFC.

Full UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit card →·Fight simulator →