← UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Head to Head · Result

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura result

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Saturday, 19 September 2026 · Women's Flyweight

Result · provisional

Casey O'Neill def. Eduarda Moura

SUB (armbar) · R1 3:22

Model’s pre-fight pick: Casey O'Neill 61% — ✓ correct

Ranking impact

Casey O'Neillrating 1727 → 1767 (+40) · now #13
Eduarda Mourarating 1627 → 1578 (-49) · now #20

The model’s pre-fight numbers

Casey O'NeillCasey O'Neill
Women's Flyweight #13
61%
win probability
vs
Eduarda MouraEduarda Moura
Women's Flyweight #20
39%
win probability

Method lean: KO · 64% finish chance

Pre-fight preview

MMARANK's model made Casey O'Neill the favourite, with a 61% win probability against Eduarda Moura.

Casey O'Neill is our #13 Women's Flyweight; Eduarda Moura is #20.

Casey O'Neill is 3-2 over the last 5 UFC fights, Eduarda Moura 3-2 over 5 fights.

The model projected a KO/TKO, giving a 64% chance of a finish — Casey O'Neill stops 67% of opponents they beat, Eduarda Moura 33%.

Casey O'Neill had a 2-inch reach advantage.

Records side by side

Casey O'NeillEduarda Moura
6-2UFC record (going in)3-2
3 / 1 / 1Wins KO / SUB / DEC1 / 0 / 2
#13 Women's FlyweightMMARANK ranking#20 Women's Flyweight
5' 6"Height5' 6"
69"Reach67"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

Recent form · last 5

Casey O'Neill3-2 last 5
WGabriella FernandesKO · 28 Mar 26
WLuana SantosDecision 30-27|30-27|30-26 · 17 Aug 24
LAriane LipskiSUB · 17 Dec 23
LJennifer MaiaDecision 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 · 18 Mar 23
WRoxanne Modafferi— · 13 Feb 22
Eduarda Moura3-2 last 5
LWang CongDecision 30-27|29-28|29-28 · 7 Feb 26
WLauren MurphyDecision 28-29|28-29|28-29 · 12 Jul 25
WVeronica HardyDecision 27-30|28-29|28-29 · 16 Nov 24
LDenise Gomes— · 8 Jun 24
WMontserrat Conejo RuizKO · 4 Nov 23

Common opponents · 0

No shared opponents in the data.

Tale of the tape

edges 7 — 1
50.9 ◂MMARANK rating34.9
#293 ◂P4P rank#417
6-2 ◂UFC record3-2
2W streak ◂Current form1L skid
67% ◂Finish rate33%
7.89 ◂Strikes / min2.63
1.4Takedowns / 15▸ 3.57
69" ◂Reach67"
5'6"Height5'6"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

FAQ

Who won Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura?

Casey O'Neill beat Eduarda Moura by submission (armbar) at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on Saturday, 19 September 2026.

Did MMARANK's model pick the winner?

Yes — before the fight the model gave Casey O'Neill a 61% win probability against Eduarda Moura.

What are Casey O'Neill's and Eduarda Moura's records?

Casey O'Neill went in 6-2 in the UFC; Eduarda Moura went in 3-2 in the UFC.

Full UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 card →·Fight simulator →