Head to Head · Prediction

Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan prediction

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Featherweight

Austin Bashi

Featherweight #49

62%

win probability

Lucas Brennan

Unranked

38%

win probability

Method lean: Submission · 62% finish chance

Preview

Our ratings give Austin Bashi the edge here — a 62% win probability, leaving Lucas Brennan at 38%.

Austin Bashi carries the higher pre-fight rating, 1496 to 1322.

Austin Bashi is 1-2 over the last 3 UFC fights, Lucas Brennan 0-1 over 1 fight.

Records side by side

Austin BashiLucas Brennan

1-2UFC record0-1

0 / 1 / 0Wins KO / SUB / DEC0 / 0 / 0

#49 FeatherweightMMARANK ranking—

5' 6"Height—

70"Reach—

OrthodoxStance—

Recent form · last 5

Austin Bashi1-2 last 3

LJose Miguel Delgado— · 18 Jul 26

WJohn YannisSUB · 2 Aug 25

LChristian RodriguezDecision 29-28|29-28|29-28 · 12 Jan 25

Lucas Brennan0-1 last 1

LFrancis MarshallDecision 30-27|30-27|30-27 · 25 Apr 26

Common opponents · 0

No shared opponents in the data.

Tale of the tape

edges 1 — 0

35.6MMARANK rating—

#412P4P rank—

1-2 ◂UFC record0-1

1L skidCurrent form1L skid

100%Finish rate—

1.34Strikes / min—

3.22Takedowns / 15—

70"Reach—

5'6"Height—

OrthodoxStance—

FAQ

Who is favoured in Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan?

MMARANK's model gives Austin Bashi a 62% win probability and Lucas Brennan 38%. This is our own rating-based estimate, not bookmaker odds.

When is Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan?

Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan is booked for UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady on Saturday, 7 November 2026 (Featherweight).

What are Austin Bashi's and Lucas Brennan's records?

Austin Bashi is 1-2 in the UFC; Lucas Brennan is 0-1 in the UFC.

Full UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady card →·Fight simulator →