UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Saturday, 6 December 2025· model 6/13
UFC 323 delivered a stunning upset-laden card as the model managed just 5 of 13 predictions. Petr Yan's decision victory over Merab Dvalishvili headlined a night of surprises, with Payton Talbott decisioning Henry Cejudo and Tatsuro Taira stopping Brandon Moreno in the second round among multiple major upsets. Joshua Van's emphatic opening-round knockout of Alexandre Pantoja completed a remarkable evening of unexpected results that exposed significant gaps in the model's predictive accuracy.
Flyweight★ Main✗ upset
Model: Brandon Moreno 55% · Submission — Result: KO (Punches) · R2 2:24
Flyweight★ Main✗ upset
Model: Alexandre Pantoja 60% · Submission — Result: KO · R1 0:26
Bantamweight★ Main✗ upset
Model: Merab Dvalishvili 60% · Decision — Result: Decision 46-49|46-49|47-48
Bantamweight★ Main✗ upset
Model: Henry Cejudo 53% · KO — Result: Decision 27-30|27-30|27-30
Featherweight✓ model correct
Model: Mairon Santos 57% · KO — Result: KO (Punches) · R3 0:21
Lightweight✗ upset
Model: Grant Dawson 62% · Submission — Result: KO (Punch) · R1 2:25
Lightweight✓ model correct
Model: Farés Ziam 53% · KO — Result: KO (Punches) · R2 4:59
Lightweight✓ model correct
Model: Chris Duncan 55% · Submission — Result: SUB (Anaconda Choke) · R1 2:30
Women's Flyweight✓ model correct
Model: Maycee Barber 61% · KO — Result: Decision 30-27|29-28|29-28
Middleweight✓ model correct
Model: Mansur Abdul-Malik 74% · KO — Result: SUB (Guillotine Choke) · R1 1:09
Light Heavyweight✓ model correct
Model: Iwo Baraniewski 50% · Decision — Result: KO (Punches) · R1 1:29
Lightweight✗ upset
Model: Edson Barboza 55% · KO — Result: KO (Punches) · R1 2:24
Middleweight✗ upset
Model: Marvin Vettori 56% · Submission — Result: Decision 28-29|28-29|28-29